STL
47%
@
April 4, 2026
DET
53%
Pitching Matchup
STL
Dustin May
vs
DET
Jack Flaherty
Win Probability
| Source | STL | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 47.0% | 53.0% |
| Simulation only | 44.0% | 56.0% |
| Elo ratings | 49.9% | 50.1% |
| Market (implied) | 40.5% | 59.5% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
STL avg runs
4.6
DET avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.3
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = STL wins, Positive = DET wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 6.0% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 13.6% | 12.7% | 11.9% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.0% |
| DET | 4.8% | 8.3% | 11.8% | 13.4% | 13.7% | 12.5% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
STL
- JJ Wetherholt
- Iván Herrera
- Alec Burleson
- Jordan Walker
- Nolan Gorman
- Ramón Urías
- Nathan Church
- Pedro Pagés
- Victor Scott II
DET
- Colt Keith
- Kevin McGonigle
- Gleyber Torres
- Riley Greene
- Kerry Carpenter
- Spencer Torkelson
- Parker Meadows
- Jake Rogers
- Javier Báez
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.06
HR: 1.04
BB: 1.05
K: 0.95
Weather
Forecast
61°F
Wind: 14 mph out
Elo Ratings
STL: 1537
DET: 1514
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | STL | DET |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +134 | -158 |
| Bovada | +136 | -162 |
| BetMGM | +140 | -170 |
| DraftKings | +135 | -163 |
| Caesars | +135 | -160 |