ATL
55%
@
April 4, 2026
ARI
45%
Pitching Matchup
ATL
Bryce Elder
vs
ARI
Mike Soroka
Win Probability
| Source | ATL | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| Simulation only | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| Elo ratings | 58.7% | 41.3% |
| Market (implied) | 49.7% | 50.3% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
ATL avg runs
4.8
ARI avg runs
4.2
Avg total
9.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = ATL wins, Positive = ARI wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 5.6% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.9% |
| ARI | 6.8% | 11.1% | 13.6% | 14.5% | 14.1% | 11.4% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.2% |
Lineups PROJECTED
ATL
- Ronald Acuña Jr.
- Drake Baldwin
- Matt Olson
- Austin Riley
- Mike Yastrzemski
- Ozzie Albies
- Michael Harris II
- Dominic Smith
- Mauricio Dubón
ARI
- Ketel Marte
- Corbin Carroll
- Geraldo Perdomo
- Gabriel Moreno
- Alek Thomas
- Nolan Arenado
- Carlos Santana
- Tim Tawa
- Jorge Barrosa
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.8
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
ATL: 1577
ARI: 1492
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | ATL | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -108 | -108 |
| Bovada | -106 | -114 |
| BetMGM | -105 | -115 |
| DraftKings | -105 | -115 |
| Caesars | -105 | -115 |