CHC
47%
@
April 4, 2026
CLE
53%
ML
CLE ML (+119) — 53% win, +6.7% edge
Pitching Matchup
CHC
Shota Imanaga
vs
CLE
Slade Cecconi
Win Probability
| Source | CHC | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 46.7% | 53.3% |
| Simulation only | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| Elo ratings | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| Market (implied) | 55.8% | 44.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CHC avg runs
4.8
CLE avg runs
3.9
Avg total
8.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CHC wins, Positive = CLE wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 5.0% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 13.4% | 12.5% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 2.2% |
| CLE | 8.0% | 12.3% | 15.4% | 14.8% | 13.8% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.1% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CHC
- Michael Busch
- Alex Bregman
- Ian Happ
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Nico Hoerner
- Carson Kelly
- Moisés Ballesteros
- Dansby Swanson
- Michael Conforto
CLE
- Steven Kwan
- Gabriel Arias
- José Ramírez
- David Fry
- Rhys Hoskins
- Chase DeLauter
- Angel Martínez
- Brayan Rocchio
- Austin Hedges
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.94
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
76°F
Wind: 16 mph in
Elo Ratings
CHC: 1525
CLE: 1582
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CHC | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -136 | +116 |
| BetMGM | -140 | +118 |
| DraftKings | -143 | +119 |
| Caesars | -140 | +118 |
Model Analysis
CLE is getting plus-money at +119 and the model thinks that's too cheap. Slade Cecconi keeps CLE competitive on the mound against Shota Imanaga. Wind blowing in — pitchers' day.