HOU
46%
@
April 4, 2026
Athletics
54%
Pitching Matchup
HOU
Tatsuya Imai
vs
Athletics
Luis Morales
Win Probability
| Source | HOU | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| Simulation only | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| Elo ratings | 46.7% | 53.3% |
| Market (implied) | 50.9% | 49.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
HOU avg runs
5.1
Athletics avg runs
4.9
Avg total
10.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = HOU wins, Positive = Athletics wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 4.3% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 12.5% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.2% |
| Athletics | 4.1% | 7.7% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 13.6% | 12.3% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 2.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
HOU
- Jeremy Peña
- Yordan Alvarez
- Isaac Paredes
- Carlos Correa
- Christian Walker
- Joey Loperfido
- Cam Smith
- Yainer Diaz
- Jake Meyers
Athletics
- Nick Kurtz
- Shea Langeliers
- Tyler Soderstrom
- Brent Rooker
- Jacob Wilson
- Lawrence Butler
- Max Muncy
- Jeff McNeil
- Denzel Clarke
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.0
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Elo Ratings
HOU: 1467
Athletics: 1466
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | HOU | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -112 | -104 |
| Bovada | -114 | -106 |
| BetMGM | -115 | -105 |
| DraftKings | -115 | -105 |
| Caesars | -115 | -105 |