MIA
37%
@
April 4, 2026
NYY
63%
Pitching Matchup
MIA
Max Meyer
vs
NYY
Ryan Weathers
Win Probability
| Source | MIA | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 36.6% | 63.4% |
| Simulation only | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Elo ratings | 33.7% | 66.3% |
| Market (implied) | 36.3% | 63.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
MIA avg runs
4.6
NYY avg runs
5.2
Avg total
9.8
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = MIA wins, Positive = NYY wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 5.7% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 13.4% | 13.5% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.6% |
| NYY | 3.8% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 11.9% | 12.9% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
MIA
- Austin Slater
- Agustín Ramírez
- Jakob Marsee
- Otto Lopez
- Connor Norby
- Heriberto Hernández
- Xavier Edwards
- Leo Jiménez
- Javier Sanoja
NYY
- Trent Grisham
- Aaron Judge
- Cody Bellinger
- Ben Rice
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- Austin Wells
- José Caballero
- Ryan McMahon
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.12
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
49°F
Wind: 14 mph in
Elo Ratings
MIA: 1558
NYY: 1652
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | MIA | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +158 | -188 |
| Bovada | +169 | -208 |
| BetMGM | +165 | -200 |
| DraftKings | +163 | -199 |
| Caesars | +162 | -195 |