TBR
42%
@
April 4, 2026
MIN
58%
ML
MIN ML (-110) — 58% win, +7.1% edge
Pitching Matchup
TBR
Steven Matz
vs
MIN
Mick Abel
Win Probability
| Source | TBR | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 41.6% | 58.4% |
| Simulation only | 46.0% | 54.0% |
| Elo ratings | 37.2% | 62.8% |
| Market (implied) | 49.4% | 50.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TBR avg runs
4.6
MIN avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TBR wins, Positive = MIN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBR | 6.3% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 13.6% | 12.9% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% |
| MIN | 5.2% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 13.2% | 13.8% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TBR
- Yandy Díaz
- Jonathan Aranda
- Junior Caminero
- Jake Fraley
- Ben Williamson
- Cedric Mullins
- Chandler Simpson
- Carson Williams
- Hunter Feduccia
MIN
- Austin Martin
- Byron Buxton
- Luke Keaschall
- Matt Wallner
- Ryan Jeffers
- Josh Bell
- Victor Caratini
- Royce Lewis
- Brooks Lee
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.07
HR: 0.93
BB: 1.06
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
37°F
Wind: 14 mph in
Elo Ratings
TBR: 1405
MIN: 1472
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TBR | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -106 | -110 |
| Bovada | -110 | -110 |
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 |
| DraftKings | -108 | -112 |
| Caesars | -105 | -115 |
Model Analysis
MIN is the better team by Elo and the sim confirms it — the market isn't giving them enough credit. Mick Abel toes the rubber against Steven Matz. Cold temps suppress the bats.