TOR
60%
@
April 4, 2026
CWS
40%
RL
CWS +1.5 (-110) — 59% win, +7.5% edge
Pitching Matchup
TOR
Mason Fluharty
vs
CWS
Grant Taylor
Win Probability
| Source | TOR | CWS |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 60.2% | 39.8% |
| Simulation only | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| Elo ratings | 69.4% | 30.6% |
| Market (implied) | 60.5% | 39.5% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TOR avg runs
4.7
CWS avg runs
4.1
Avg total
8.8
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TOR wins, Positive = CWS wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 5.5% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 13.2% | 12.9% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.7% |
| CWS | 7.1% | 10.5% | 14.3% | 14.8% | 13.9% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TOR
- George Springer
- Jesús Sánchez
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Addison Barger
- Kazuma Okamoto
- Daulton Varsho
- Ernie Clement
- Andrés Giménez
- Tyler Heineman
CWS
- Chase Meidroth
- Munetaka Murakami
- Miguel Vargas
- Colson Montgomery
- Austin Hays
- Andrew Benintendi
- Tristan Peters
- Reese McGuire
- Luisangel Acuña
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.92
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
43°F
Wind: 15 mph cross
Elo Ratings
TOR: 1556
CWS: 1390
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TOR | CWS |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -166 | +140 |
| Bovada | -174 | +143 |
| BetMGM | -175 | +145 |
| DraftKings | -171 | +141 |
| Caesars | -170 | +143 |
Model Analysis
CWS is getting +1.5 at -110. The sim gives them a 59% chance of covering — 7.5% edge. Run line bets are higher variance, but the model sees value here.