ATL
53%
@
April 5, 2026
ARI
47%
Pitching Matchup
ATL
Martin Perez
vs
ARI
Brandon Pfaadt
Win Probability
| Source | ATL | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 53.1% | 46.9% |
| Simulation only | 50.8% | 49.2% |
| Elo ratings | 55.4% | 44.6% |
| Market (implied) | 50.0% | 50.0% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
ATL avg runs
4.8
ARI avg runs
4.3
Avg total
9.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = ATL wins, Positive = ARI wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 5.1% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| ARI | 6.3% | 10.6% | 13.2% | 13.9% | 13.7% | 12.2% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% |
Lineups PROJECTED
ATL
- Ronald Acuña Jr.
- Drake Baldwin
- Matt Olson
- Austin Riley
- Mike Yastrzemski
- Ozzie Albies
- Michael Harris II
- Dominic Smith
- Mauricio Dubón
ARI
- Ketel Marte
- Corbin Carroll
- Geraldo Perdomo
- Gabriel Moreno
- Nolan Arenado
- Jose Fernandez
- Carlos Santana
- Tim Tawa
- Jorge Barrosa
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.8
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
ATL: 1565
ARI: 1504
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | ATL | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -108 | -108 |
| Bovada | -109 | -111 |
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 |
| DraftKings | -108 | -112 |
| Caesars | -110 | -110 |