NYM
49%
@
April 5, 2026
SFG
51%
Pitching Matchup
NYM
Kodai Senga
vs
SFG
Logan Webb
Win Probability
| Source | NYM | SFG |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| Simulation only | 47.1% | 52.9% |
| Elo ratings | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| Market (implied) | 48.1% | 51.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
NYM avg runs
4.6
SFG avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = NYM wins, Positive = SFG wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 6.0% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 12.8% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.7% |
| SFG | 5.8% | 9.7% | 12.6% | 13.7% | 13.3% | 12.8% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.3% |
Lineups PROJECTED
NYM
- Francisco Lindor
- Bo Bichette
- Jorge Polanco
- Luis Robert Jr.
- Brett Baty
- Mark Vientos
- Marcus Semien
- Carson Benge
- Francisco Alvarez
SFG
- Willy Adames
- Rafael Devers
- Heliot Ramos
- Luis Arraez
- Matt Chapman
- Jung Hoo Lee
- Harrison Bader
- Patrick Bailey
- Jerar Encarnacion
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.91
HR: 0.82
BB: 0.86
K: 0.9
Elo Ratings
NYM: 1468
SFG: 1442
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | NYM | SFG |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +102 | -120 |
| Bovada | -101 | -119 |
| BetMGM | -105 | -115 |
| DraftKings | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | +100 | -120 |