TBR
43%
@
April 5, 2026
MIN
57%
Pitching Matchup
TBR
Nick Martinez
vs
MIN
Simeon Woods Richardson
Win Probability
| Source | TBR | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| Simulation only | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| Elo ratings | 40.6% | 59.4% |
| Market (implied) | 48.8% | 51.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TBR avg runs
4.6
MIN avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TBR wins, Positive = MIN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBR | 5.7% | 10.2% | 12.1% | 13.6% | 13.0% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.5% |
| MIN | 5.5% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 13.7% | 13.2% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.3% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TBR
- Yandy Díaz
- Jonathan Aranda
- Junior Caminero
- Jake Fraley
- Nick Fortes
- Cedric Mullins
- Ben Williamson
- Chandler Simpson
- Carson Williams
MIN
- Kody Clemens
- Byron Buxton
- Luke Keaschall
- Matt Wallner
- Josh Bell
- Ryan Jeffers
- Trevor Larnach
- Royce Lewis
- Brooks Lee
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.07
HR: 0.95
BB: 1.06
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
47°F
Wind: 16 mph in
Elo Ratings
TBR: 1418
MIN: 1460
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TBR | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +100 | -118 |
| Bovada | -107 | -113 |
| BetMGM | -105 | -115 |
| DraftKings | -108 | -112 |
| Caesars | -110 | -110 |