BAL
49%
@
April 5, 2026
PIT
51%
Pitching Matchup
BAL
Chris Bassitt
vs
PIT
Braxton Ashcraft
Win Probability
| Source | BAL | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| Simulation only | 44.6% | 55.4% |
| Elo ratings | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| Market (implied) | 46.4% | 53.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
BAL avg runs
4.4
PIT avg runs
4.4
Avg total
8.8
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = BAL wins, Positive = PIT wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 6.6% | 11.0% | 13.2% | 13.9% | 12.9% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| PIT | 5.8% | 9.9% | 13.4% | 13.6% | 13.4% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
BAL
- Taylor Ward
- Gunnar Henderson
- Pete Alonso
- Adley Rutschman
- Samuel Basallo
- Dylan Beavers
- Coby Mayo
- Colton Cowser
- Blaze Alexander
PIT
- Oneil Cruz
- Brandon Lowe
- Bryan Reynolds
- Ryan O'Hearn
- Marcell Ozuna
- Konnor Griffin
- Spencer Horwitz
- Nick Gonzales
- Henry Davis
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.77
BB: 1.0
K: 0.92
Weather
Forecast
43°F
Wind: 13 mph cross
Elo Ratings
BAL: 1492
PIT: 1444
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | BAL | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +104 | -122 |
| Bovada | +108 | -130 |
| BetMGM | +110 | -130 |
| DraftKings | +109 | -131 |
| Caesars | +110 | -130 |