CIN
42%
@
April 5, 2026
TEX
58%
Pitching Matchup
CIN
Chase Burns
vs
TEX
Jack Leiter
Win Probability
| Source | CIN | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 42.3% | 57.7% |
| Simulation only | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| Elo ratings | 41.2% | 58.8% |
| Market (implied) | 47.1% | 52.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CIN avg runs
4.6
TEX avg runs
4.8
Avg total
9.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CIN wins, Positive = TEX wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 5.7% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 13.3% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.7% |
| TEX | 4.3% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 14.0% | 13.4% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CIN
- TJ Friedl
- Matt McLain
- Elly De La Cruz
- Sal Stewart
- Eugenio Suárez
- Spencer Steer
- Will Benson
- Tyler Stephenson
- Ke'Bryan Hayes
TEX
- Brandon Nimmo
- Wyatt Langford
- Corey Seager
- Jake Burger
- Joc Pederson
- Josh Smith
- Josh Jung
- Evan Carter
- Danny Jansen
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.95
HR: 1.07
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
CIN: 1480
TEX: 1517
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CIN | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +102 | -120 |
| Bovada | +106 | -126 |
| BetMGM | +105 | -125 |
| DraftKings | +104 | -126 |
| Caesars | +105 | -125 |