HOU
46%
@
April 5, 2026
Athletics
54%
Pitching Matchup
HOU
Lance McCullers Jr.
vs
Athletics
Jacob Lopez
Win Probability
| Source | HOU | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| Simulation only | 42.6% | 57.4% |
| Elo ratings | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| Market (implied) | 52.6% | 47.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
HOU avg runs
4.9
Athletics avg runs
5.0
Avg total
9.8
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = HOU wins, Positive = Athletics wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 4.7% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 13.5% | 13.4% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.2% |
| Athletics | 4.3% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 12.4% | 12.3% | 13.0% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.9% |
Lineups PROJECTED
HOU
- Jose Altuve
- Yordan Alvarez
- Isaac Paredes
- Carlos Correa
- Christian Walker
- Cam Smith
- Jake Meyers
- Yainer Diaz
- Brice Matthews
Athletics
- Nick Kurtz
- Shea Langeliers
- Tyler Soderstrom
- Brent Rooker
- Jacob Wilson
- Lawrence Butler
- Max Muncy
- Jeff McNeil
- Denzel Clarke
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.0
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Elo Ratings
HOU: 1478
Athletics: 1455
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | HOU | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -118 | +100 |
| Bovada | -125 | +105 |
| BetMGM | -125 | +105 |
| DraftKings | -122 | +102 |
| Caesars | -125 | +105 |