LAD
59%
@
April 5, 2026
WSN
41%
RL
WSN +1.5 (+110) — 55% win, +8.3% edge
Pitching Matchup
LAD
Roki Sasaki
vs
WSN
Foster Griffin
Win Probability
| Source | LAD | WSN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 59.2% | 40.8% |
| Simulation only | 53.7% | 46.3% |
| Elo ratings | 64.7% | 35.3% |
| Market (implied) | 65.3% | 34.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
LAD avg runs
5.5
WSN avg runs
4.6
Avg total
10.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = LAD wins, Positive = WSN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 3.7% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.9% |
| WSN | 5.1% | 9.4% | 12.1% | 13.3% | 14.0% | 12.4% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
LAD
- Shohei Ohtani
- Kyle Tucker
- Mookie Betts
- Teoscar Hernández
- Freddie Freeman
- Andy Pages
- Max Muncy
- Miguel Rojas
- Dalton Rushing
WSN
- James Wood
- Luis García Jr.
- Brady House
- Daylen Lile
- CJ Abrams
- Curtis Mead
- Jorbit Vivas
- Drew Millas
- Jacob Young
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.98
BB: 0.95
K: 0.95
Elo Ratings
LAD: 1625
WSN: 1496
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | LAD | WSN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -205 | +172 |
| Bovada | -212 | +172 |
| BetMGM | -220 | +180 |
| DraftKings | -219 | +179 |
| Caesars | -220 | +180 |
Model Analysis
WSN is getting +1.5 at +110. The sim gives them a 55% chance of covering — 8.3% edge. Run line bets are higher variance, but the model sees value here.