MIA
36%
@
April 5, 2026
NYY
64%
ML
MIA ML (+240) — 36% win, +6.9% edge
Pitching Matchup
MIA
Chris Paddack
vs
NYY
Max Fried
Win Probability
| Source | MIA | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 35.9% | 64.1% |
| Simulation only | 39.9% | 60.1% |
| Elo ratings | 32.0% | 68.0% |
| Market (implied) | 28.3% | 71.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
MIA avg runs
4.6
NYY avg runs
5.3
Avg total
9.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = MIA wins, Positive = NYY wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 5.7% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 13.2% | 12.6% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.9% |
| NYY | 3.5% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 13.3% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.2% |
Lineups PROJECTED
MIA
- Austin Slater
- Agustín Ramírez
- Jakob Marsee
- Otto Lopez
- Heriberto Hernández
- Connor Norby
- Xavier Edwards
- Leo Jiménez
- Javier Sanoja
NYY
- Trent Grisham
- Aaron Judge
- Cody Bellinger
- Ben Rice
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- Austin Wells
- José Caballero
- Ryan McMahon
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.13
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
54°F
Wind: 9 mph out
Elo Ratings
MIA: 1552
NYY: 1659
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | MIA | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +240 | -295 |
| Bovada | +235 | -300 |
| BetMGM | +240 | -300 |
| DraftKings | +238 | -300 |
| Caesars | +235 | -292 |
Model Analysis
The market has MIA as a +240 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Chris Paddack keeps MIA competitive on the mound against Max Fried. NYY is the better team on paper — but the matchup favors MIA today.