SDP
48%
@
April 5, 2026
BOS
52%
RL
SDP +1.5 (-150) — 67% win, +7.7% edge
Pitching Matchup
SDP
Walker Buehler
vs
BOS
Ranger Suarez
Win Probability
| Source | SDP | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| Simulation only | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| Elo ratings | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| Market (implied) | 41.2% | 58.8% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SDP avg runs
5.3
BOS avg runs
4.8
Avg total
10.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SDP wins, Positive = BOS wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDP | 4.1% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.5% |
| BOS | 4.8% | 8.5% | 11.4% | 12.5% | 13.7% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SDP
- Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Xander Bogaerts
- Manny Machado
- Jackson Merrill
- Ramón Laureano
- Miguel Andujar
- Ty France
- Jake Cronenworth
- Luis Campusano
BOS
- Roman Anthony
- Trevor Story
- Jarren Duran
- Willson Contreras
- Wilyer Abreu
- Caleb Durbin
- Marcelo Mayer
- Ceddanne Rafaela
- Connor Wong
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 0.83
BB: 1.0
K: 0.93
Weather
Forecast
55°F
Wind: 8 mph cross
Elo Ratings
SDP: 1475
BOS: 1477
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SDP | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +130 | -154 |
| Bovada | +135 | -161 |
| BetMGM | +130 | -155 |
| DraftKings | +129 | -156 |
| Caesars | +135 | -160 |
Model Analysis
SDP is getting +1.5 at -150. The sim gives them a 67% chance of covering — 7.7% edge. Run line bets are higher variance, but the model sees value here.