SEA
53%
@
April 5, 2026
LAA
47%
ML
LAA ML (+145) — 47% win, +6.4% edge
Pitching Matchup
SEA
Luis Castillo
vs
LAA
Ryan Johnson
Win Probability
| Source | SEA | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| Simulation only | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| Elo ratings | 55.4% | 44.6% |
| Market (implied) | 60.5% | 39.5% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SEA avg runs
5.1
LAA avg runs
4.4
Avg total
9.5
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SEA wins, Positive = LAA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 4.8% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.3% |
| LAA | 6.0% | 9.5% | 13.2% | 14.6% | 13.6% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.3% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SEA
- Luke Raley
- Cal Raleigh
- Julio Rodríguez
- Josh Naylor
- Randy Arozarena
- Dominic Canzone
- J.P. Crawford
- Cole Young
- Leo Rivas
LAA
- Zach Neto
- Mike Trout
- Nolan Schanuel
- Jorge Soler
- Yoán Moncada
- Jo Adell
- Josh Lowe
- Logan O'Hoppe
- Oswald Peraza
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.08
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
82°F
Wind: 7 mph in
Elo Ratings
SEA: 1521
LAA: 1460
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SEA | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -166 | +140 |
| Bovada | -175 | +144 |
| BetMGM | -175 | +145 |
| DraftKings | -175 | +144 |
| Caesars | -170 | +143 |
Model Analysis
The market has LAA as a +145 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Ryan Johnson keeps LAA competitive on the mound against Luis Castillo. SEA is the better team on paper — but the matchup favors LAA today.