STL
46%
@
April 5, 2026
DET
54%
Pitching Matchup
STL
Kyle Leahy
vs
DET
Keider Montero
Win Probability
| Source | STL | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Simulation only | 43.1% | 56.9% |
| Elo ratings | 49.9% | 50.1% |
| Market (implied) | 44.2% | 55.8% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
STL avg runs
4.4
DET avg runs
4.6
Avg total
9.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = STL wins, Positive = DET wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 6.5% | 11.0% | 12.8% | 14.0% | 12.9% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| DET | 5.2% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 13.9% | 13.9% | 12.5% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
STL
- JJ Wetherholt
- Iván Herrera
- Alec Burleson
- Masyn Winn
- Nolan Gorman
- Jordan Walker
- Nathan Church
- Pedro Pagés
- Victor Scott II
DET
- Colt Keith
- Kevin McGonigle
- Gleyber Torres
- Kerry Carpenter
- Riley Greene
- Dillon Dingler
- Spencer Torkelson
- Parker Meadows
- Javier Báez
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.06
HR: 0.99
BB: 1.05
K: 0.95
Weather
Forecast
38°F
Wind: 13 mph cross
Elo Ratings
STL: 1537
DET: 1514
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | STL | DET |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +116 | -136 |
| Bovada | +115 | -138 |
| BetMGM | +118 | -140 |
| DraftKings | +119 | -143 |
| Caesars | +118 | -140 |