TOR
60%
@
April 5, 2026
CWS
40%
Pitching Matchup
TOR
Eric Lauer
vs
CWS
Davis Martin
Win Probability
| Source | TOR | CWS |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 60.1% | 39.9% |
| Simulation only | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| Elo ratings | 65.9% | 34.1% |
| Market (implied) | 59.4% | 40.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TOR avg runs
4.8
CWS avg runs
3.9
Avg total
8.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TOR wins, Positive = CWS wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 5.3% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 13.2% | 12.6% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.0% |
| CWS | 7.3% | 12.3% | 14.4% | 15.6% | 14.2% | 11.6% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TOR
- George Springer
- Jesús Sánchez
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Addison Barger
- Daulton Varsho
- Kazuma Okamoto
- Ernie Clement
- Andrés Giménez
- Brandon Valenzuela
CWS
- Chase Meidroth
- Lenyn Sosa
- Miguel Vargas
- Munetaka Murakami
- Austin Hays
- Colson Montgomery
- Everson Pereira
- Edgar Quero
- Luisangel Acuña
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.93
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
46°F
Wind: 8 mph cross
Elo Ratings
TOR: 1543
CWS: 1404
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TOR | CWS |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -154 | +130 |
| Bovada | -170 | +141 |
| BetMGM | -155 | +130 |
| DraftKings | -163 | +135 |
| Caesars | -160 | +135 |