ARI
50%
@
April 7, 2026
NYM
50%
ML
ARI ML (+136) — 50% win, +6.8% edge
Pitching Matchup
ARI
Zac Gallen
vs
NYM
Freddy Peralta
Win Probability
| Source | ARI | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| Simulation only | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| Elo ratings | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| Market (implied) | 40.8% | 59.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
ARI avg runs
4.7
NYM avg runs
4.4
Avg total
9.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = ARI wins, Positive = NYM wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 5.3% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 12.9% | 13.1% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.9% |
| NYM | 5.6% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 14.2% | 14.3% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
ARI
- Ketel Marte
- Corbin Carroll
- Geraldo Perdomo
- Gabriel Moreno
- Adrian Del Castillo
- Nolan Arenado
- Jose Fernandez
- Alek Thomas
- Tim Tawa
NYM
- Francisco Lindor
- Bo Bichette
- Jorge Polanco
- Luis Robert Jr.
- Brett Baty
- Mark Vientos
- Marcus Semien
- Carson Benge
- Francisco Alvarez
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.02
BB: 1.06
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
42°F
Wind: 15 mph out
Elo Ratings
ARI: 1515
NYM: 1478
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | ARI | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +136 | -162 |
| Bovada | +134 | -160 |
| BetMGM | +135 | -160 |
| DraftKings | +135 | -163 |
| Caesars | +135 | -160 |
Model Analysis
The market has ARI as a +136 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Zac Gallen keeps ARI competitive on the mound against Freddy Peralta. Cold temps suppress the bats.