Athletics
34%
@
April 7, 2026
NYY
66%
RL
Athletics +1.5 (-106) — 61% win, +9.9% edge
Pitching Matchup
Athletics
Aaron Civale
vs
NYY
Cam Schlittler
Win Probability
| Source | Athletics | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 34.3% | 65.7% |
| Simulation only | 45.1% | 54.9% |
| Elo ratings | 23.6% | 76.4% |
| Market (implied) | 33.2% | 66.8% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Athletics avg runs
5.1
NYY avg runs
5.3
Avg total
10.5
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = Athletics wins, Positive = NYY wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | 4.2% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 13.0% | 12.7% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.6% |
| NYY | 3.3% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
Athletics
- Nick Kurtz
- Shea Langeliers
- Tyler Soderstrom
- Brent Rooker
- Jacob Wilson
- Lawrence Butler
- Max Muncy
- Jeff McNeil
- Denzel Clarke
NYY
- Trent Grisham
- Aaron Judge
- Cody Bellinger
- Ben Rice
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- Austin Wells
- José Caballero
- Ryan McMahon
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.1
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
41°F
Wind: 15 mph out
Elo Ratings
Athletics: 1465
NYY: 1645
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | Athletics | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +184 | -220 |
| Bovada | +190 | -230 |
| BetMGM | +180 | -220 |
| DraftKings | +189 | -232 |
| Caesars | +192 | -235 |
Model Analysis
Athletics is getting +1.5 at -106. The sim gives them a 61% chance of covering — 9.9% edge. Run line bets are higher variance, but the model sees value here.