BAL
54%
@
April 7, 2026
CWS
46%
Pitching Matchup
BAL
Trevor Rogers
vs
CWS
Shane Smith
Win Probability
| Source | BAL | CWS |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| Simulation only | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| Elo ratings | 58.2% | 41.8% |
| Market (implied) | 55.9% | 44.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
BAL avg runs
4.4
CWS avg runs
4.0
Avg total
8.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = BAL wins, Positive = CWS wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 6.4% | 10.3% | 13.0% | 14.2% | 13.0% | 11.8% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.5% |
| CWS | 7.5% | 12.4% | 14.3% | 14.7% | 13.9% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% |
Lineups PROJECTED
BAL
- Taylor Ward
- Gunnar Henderson
- Pete Alonso
- Adley Rutschman
- Samuel Basallo
- Dylan Beavers
- Coby Mayo
- Colton Cowser
- Blaze Alexander
CWS
- Chase Meidroth
- Miguel Vargas
- Munetaka Murakami
- Edgar Quero
- Lenyn Sosa
- Colson Montgomery
- Luisangel Acuña
- Tanner Murray
- Derek Hill
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.9
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
33°F
Wind: 8 mph out
Elo Ratings
BAL: 1490
CWS: 1409
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | BAL | CWS |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -142 | +120 |
| Bovada | -139 | +116 |
| BetMGM | -140 | +115 |
| DraftKings | -136 | +113 |
| Caesars | -140 | +118 |