CIN
44%
@
April 7, 2026
MIA
56%
Pitching Matchup
CIN
Andrew Abbott
vs
MIA
Sandy Alcantara
Win Probability
| Source | CIN | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 43.9% | 56.1% |
| Simulation only | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| Elo ratings | 39.7% | 60.3% |
| Market (implied) | 44.5% | 55.5% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CIN avg runs
4.6
MIA avg runs
4.3
Avg total
8.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CIN wins, Positive = MIA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 6.0% | 9.9% | 12.3% | 13.0% | 12.9% | 12.0% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.8% |
| MIA | 6.2% | 10.0% | 13.5% | 15.0% | 13.8% | 12.2% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CIN
- TJ Friedl
- Matt McLain
- Elly De La Cruz
- Sal Stewart
- Eugenio Suárez
- Spencer Steer
- Will Benson
- Tyler Stephenson
- Ke'Bryan Hayes
MIA
- Austin Slater
- Agustín Ramírez
- Jakob Marsee
- Otto Lopez
- Heriberto Hernández
- Connor Norby
- Xavier Edwards
- Leo Jiménez
- Javier Sanoja
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 0.92
BB: 1.06
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
CIN: 1504
MIA: 1552
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CIN | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +112 | -132 |
| Bovada | +114 | -136 |
| BetMGM | +110 | -135 |
| DraftKings | +119 | -143 |
| Caesars | +118 | -140 |