KCR
44%
@
April 7, 2026
CLE
56%
Pitching Matchup
KCR
Noah Cameron
vs
CLE
Gavin Williams
Win Probability
| Source | KCR | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 44.3% | 55.7% |
| Simulation only | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| Elo ratings | 34.1% | 65.9% |
| Market (implied) | 48.3% | 51.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
KCR avg runs
4.5
CLE avg runs
3.7
Avg total
8.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = KCR wins, Positive = CLE wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KCR | 6.0% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 13.7% | 12.9% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.6% |
| CLE | 9.1% | 13.4% | 15.5% | 15.0% | 13.6% | 11.1% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
KCR
- Maikel Garcia
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Vinnie Pasquantino
- Salvador Perez
- Carter Jensen
- Jonathan India
- Jac Caglianone
- Isaac Collins
- Kyle Isbel
CLE
- Steven Kwan
- Angel Martínez
- José Ramírez
- David Fry
- Chase DeLauter
- Rhys Hoskins
- Kyle Manzardo
- Austin Hedges
- Brayan Rocchio
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.85
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
31°F
Wind: 8 mph out
Elo Ratings
KCR: 1474
CLE: 1564
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | KCR | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -104 | -112 |
| Bovada | +103 | -123 |
| BetMGM | -102 | -118 |
| DraftKings | -102 | -118 |
| Caesars | +100 | -120 |