ATL
53%
@
April 7, 2026
LAA
47%
Pitching Matchup
ATL
Reynaldo Lopez
vs
LAA
Yusei Kikuchi
Win Probability
| Source | ATL | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| Simulation only | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| Elo ratings | 55.2% | 44.8% |
| Market (implied) | 56.0% | 44.0% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
ATL avg runs
4.9
LAA avg runs
4.4
Avg total
9.3
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = ATL wins, Positive = LAA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 4.8% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 12.7% | 13.2% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.1% |
| LAA | 6.0% | 10.0% | 13.0% | 14.3% | 13.5% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
ATL
- Ronald Acuña Jr.
- Drake Baldwin
- Ozzie Albies
- Matt Olson
- Austin Riley
- Eli White
- Mauricio Dubón
- Michael Harris II
- Jonah Heim
LAA
- Zach Neto
- Mike Trout
- Nolan Schanuel
- Jorge Soler
- Yoán Moncada
- Jo Adell
- Josh Lowe
- Logan O'Hoppe
- Oswald Peraza
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.07
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
76°F
Wind: 8 mph in
Elo Ratings
ATL: 1543
LAA: 1483
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | ATL | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -136 | +116 |
| Bovada | -144 | +121 |
| BetMGM | -140 | +115 |
| DraftKings | -143 | +119 |
| Caesars | -140 | +118 |