CHC
54%
@
April 7, 2026
TBR
46%
ML
CHC ML (+116) — 54% win, +6.6% edge
Pitching Matchup
CHC
Javier Assad
vs
TBR
Drew Rasmussen
Win Probability
| Source | CHC | TBR |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 53.6% | 46.4% |
| Simulation only | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| Elo ratings | 57.2% | 42.8% |
| Market (implied) | 44.7% | 55.3% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CHC avg runs
4.7
TBR avg runs
4.2
Avg total
9.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CHC wins, Positive = TBR wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 5.4% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 12.5% | 12.9% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.9% |
| TBR | 6.8% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 15.1% | 13.6% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CHC
- Michael Busch
- Alex Bregman
- Ian Happ
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Nico Hoerner
- Carson Kelly
- Moisés Ballesteros
- Dansby Swanson
- Michael Conforto
TBR
- Yandy Díaz
- Jonathan Aranda
- Jake Fraley
- Junior Caminero
- Chandler Simpson
- Nick Fortes
- Cedric Mullins
- Ben Williamson
- Taylor Walls
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.0
BB: 1.0
K: 1.08
Elo Ratings
CHC: 1516
TBR: 1442
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CHC | TBR |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +116 | -136 |
| Bovada | +112 | -134 |
| BetMGM | +115 | -140 |
| DraftKings | +113 | -136 |
| Caesars | +115 | -135 |
Model Analysis
CHC is getting plus-money at +116 and the model thinks that's too cheap. Javier Assad keeps CHC competitive on the mound against Drew Rasmussen. CHC holds a commanding 74-point Elo edge.