DET
49%
@
April 7, 2026
MIN
51%
ML
MIN ML (+144) — 51% win, +8.1% edge
Pitching Matchup
DET
Tarik Skubal
vs
MIN
Taj Bradley
Win Probability
| Source | DET | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| Simulation only | 46.0% | 54.0% |
| Elo ratings | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| Market (implied) | 60.6% | 39.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
DET avg runs
4.7
MIN avg runs
4.6
Avg total
9.3
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = DET wins, Positive = MIN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 5.7% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 12.9% | 13.0% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.8% |
| MIN | 5.4% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 13.7% | 13.6% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
DET
- Colt Keith
- Kevin McGonigle
- Gleyber Torres
- Kerry Carpenter
- Riley Greene
- Dillon Dingler
- Spencer Torkelson
- Parker Meadows
- Javier Bรกez
MIN
- Austin Martin
- Byron Buxton
- Luke Keaschall
- Matt Wallner
- Ryan Jeffers
- Josh Bell
- Victor Caratini
- Royce Lewis
- Brooks Lee
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.07
HR: 0.95
BB: 1.06
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
45°F
Wind: 12 mph out
Elo Ratings
DET: 1493
MIN: 1459
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | DET | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -172 | +144 |
| Bovada | -170 | +141 |
| BetMGM | -170 | +140 |
| DraftKings | -175 | +144 |
| Caesars | -170 | +143 |
Model Analysis
The market has MIN as a +144 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Taj Bradley keeps MIN competitive on the mound against Tarik Skubal. Cold temps suppress the bats.