LAD
59%
@
April 7, 2026
TOR
41%
Pitching Matchup
LAD
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
vs
TOR
Kevin Gausman
Win Probability
| Source | LAD | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| Simulation only | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| Elo ratings | 63.3% | 36.8% |
| Market (implied) | 59.2% | 40.8% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
LAD avg runs
5.7
TOR avg runs
4.8
Avg total
10.5
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = LAD wins, Positive = TOR wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 3.0% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.2% |
| TOR | 4.6% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 12.9% | 13.1% | 12.3% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.9% |
Lineups PROJECTED
LAD
- Shohei Ohtani
- Kyle Tucker
- Will Smith
- Freddie Freeman
- Teoscar Hernández
- Max Muncy
- Andy Pages
- Alex Freeland
- Hyeseong Kim
TOR
- George Springer
- Nathan Lukes
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Jesús Sánchez
- Kazuma Okamoto
- Daulton Varsho
- Ernie Clement
- Andrés Giménez
- Tyler Heineman
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.04
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
LAD: 1640
TOR: 1522
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | LAD | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -162 | +136 |
| Bovada | -161 | +135 |
| BetMGM | -165 | +135 |
| DraftKings | -163 | +135 |
| Caesars | -160 | +135 |