MIL
53%
@
April 7, 2026
BOS
47%
ML
MIL ML (+134) — 53% win, +8.1% edge
Pitching Matchup
MIL
Jacob Misiorowski
vs
BOS
Garrett Crochet
Win Probability
| Source | MIL | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| Simulation only | 41.7% | 58.3% |
| Elo ratings | 64.9% | 35.1% |
| Market (implied) | 41.6% | 58.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
MIL avg runs
4.4
BOS avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = MIL wins, Positive = BOS wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 6.7% | 10.7% | 13.2% | 14.2% | 12.7% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.5% |
| BOS | 4.8% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 13.1% | 14.0% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% |
Lineups PROJECTED
MIL
- Brice Turang
- Luis Rengifo
- William Contreras
- Christian Yelich
- Gary Sánchez
- Luis Matos
- Brandon Lockridge
- Blake Perkins
- Joey Ortiz
BOS
- Roman Anthony
- Trevor Story
- Jarren Duran
- Willson Contreras
- Wilyer Abreu
- Caleb Durbin
- Marcelo Mayer
- Carlos Narváez
- Ceddanne Rafaela
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 0.8
BB: 1.0
K: 0.93
Weather
Forecast
37°F
Wind: 9 mph out
Elo Ratings
MIL: 1590
BOS: 1459
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | MIL | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +134 | -158 |
| Bovada | +130 | -155 |
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 |
| DraftKings | +129 | -156 |
| Caesars | +130 | -155 |
Model Analysis
The market has MIL as a +134 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Jacob Misiorowski keeps MIL competitive on the mound against Garrett Crochet. Cold temps suppress the bats.