PHI
55%
@
April 7, 2026
SFG
45%
Pitching Matchup
PHI
Cristopher Sanchez
vs
SFG
Robbie Ray
Win Probability
| Source | PHI | SFG |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| Simulation only | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| Elo ratings | 59.9% | 40.2% |
| Market (implied) | 58.8% | 41.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
PHI avg runs
5.0
SFG avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = PHI wins, Positive = SFG wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 4.8% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.1% |
| SFG | 5.8% | 9.7% | 12.7% | 14.0% | 13.8% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
PHI
- Trea Turner
- Kyle Schwarber
- Bryce Harper
- Alec Bohm
- Bryson Stott
- Adolis García
- Brandon Marsh
- J.T. Realmuto
- Justin Crawford
SFG
- Willy Adames
- Luis Arraez
- Matt Chapman
- Rafael Devers
- Heliot Ramos
- Jung Hoo Lee
- Jerar Encarnacion
- Harrison Bader
- Patrick Bailey
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.91
HR: 0.82
BB: 0.86
K: 0.9
Elo Ratings
PHI: 1517
SFG: 1424
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | PHI | SFG |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -156 | +132 |
| Bovada | -154 | +129 |
| BetMGM | -160 | +135 |
| DraftKings | -156 | +129 |
| Caesars | -155 | +130 |