SDP
51%
@
April 7, 2026
PIT
49%
ML
SDP ML (+130) — 51% win, +6.7% edge
Pitching Matchup
SDP
Nick Pivetta
vs
PIT
Paul Skenes
Win Probability
| Source | SDP | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| Simulation only | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| Elo ratings | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| Market (implied) | 42.1% | 57.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SDP avg runs
4.8
PIT avg runs
4.4
Avg total
9.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SDP wins, Positive = PIT wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDP | 5.2% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 13.1% | 13.0% | 11.9% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.0% |
| PIT | 6.1% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 13.9% | 13.5% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SDP
- Ramón Laureano
- Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Jackson Merrill
- Manny Machado
- Xander Bogaerts
- Gavin Sheets
- Nick Castellanos
- Freddy Fermin
- Jake Cronenworth
PIT
- Oneil Cruz
- Brandon Lowe
- Bryan Reynolds
- Ryan O'Hearn
- Marcell Ozuna
- Nick Gonzales
- Spencer Horwitz
- Konnor Griffin
- Henry Davis
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.77
BB: 1.0
K: 0.92
Weather
Forecast
39°F
Wind: 9 mph cross
Elo Ratings
SDP: 1496
PIT: 1445
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SDP | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +126 | -148 |
| Bovada | +130 | -155 |
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 |
| DraftKings | +129 | -156 |
| Caesars | +130 | -155 |
Model Analysis
SDP is getting plus-money at +130 and the model thinks that's too cheap. Nick Pivetta keeps SDP competitive on the mound against Paul Skenes. Cold temps suppress the bats.