SEA
47%
@
April 7, 2026
TEX
53%
Pitching Matchup
SEA
George Kirby
vs
TEX
Nathan Eovaldi
Win Probability
| Source | SEA | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| Simulation only | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| Elo ratings | 44.6% | 55.4% |
| Market (implied) | 52.4% | 47.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SEA avg runs
5.2
TEX avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SEA wins, Positive = TEX wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 4.1% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.6% |
| TEX | 5.3% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 2.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SEA
- Brendan Donovan
- Cal Raleigh
- Julio Rodríguez
- Josh Naylor
- Randy Arozarena
- Luke Raley
- Dominic Canzone
- J.P. Crawford
- Cole Young
TEX
- Brandon Nimmo
- Wyatt Langford
- Corey Seager
- Jake Burger
- Joc Pederson
- Evan Carter
- Danny Jansen
- Josh Smith
- Josh Jung
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.95
HR: 1.07
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
SEA: 1501
TEX: 1515
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SEA | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -116 | -102 |
| Bovada | -119 | -101 |
| BetMGM | -125 | +105 |
| DraftKings | -122 | +102 |
| Caesars | -125 | +105 |