STL
50%
@
April 7, 2026
WSN
50%
Pitching Matchup
STL
Matthew Liberatore
vs
WSN
Cade Cavalli
Win Probability
| Source | STL | WSN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| Simulation only | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Elo ratings | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| Market (implied) | 49.2% | 50.8% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
STL avg runs
4.5
WSN avg runs
4.2
Avg total
8.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = STL wins, Positive = WSN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 6.0% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 13.4% | 13.2% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% |
| WSN | 6.3% | 10.5% | 13.4% | 14.5% | 13.9% | 12.5% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.3% |
Lineups PROJECTED
STL
- JJ Wetherholt
- Iván Herrera
- Alec Burleson
- Masyn Winn
- Nolan Gorman
- Thomas Saggese
- Nathan Church
- Pedro Pagés
- Victor Scott II
WSN
- James Wood
- Andrés Chaparro
- Brady House
- Daylen Lile
- Joey Wiemer
- CJ Abrams
- Nasim Nuñez
- Keibert Ruiz
- Jacob Young
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.98
BB: 0.95
K: 0.95
Elo Ratings
STL: 1536
WSN: 1500
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | STL | WSN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -108 | -108 |
| Bovada | -101 | -119 |
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 |
| DraftKings | -102 | -118 |
| Caesars | -105 | -115 |