ATL
53%
@
April 8, 2026
LAA
47%
Pitching Matchup
ATL
Grant Holmes
vs
LAA
Reid Detmers
Win Probability
| Source | ATL | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| Simulation only | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| Elo ratings | 57.7% | 42.3% |
| Market (implied) | 54.9% | 45.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
ATL avg runs
4.7
LAA avg runs
4.4
Avg total
9.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = ATL wins, Positive = LAA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 5.2% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 13.2% | 13.4% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| LAA | 5.6% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 14.3% | 13.7% | 12.7% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
ATL
- Ronald Acuña Jr.
- Drake Baldwin
- Ozzie Albies
- Matt Olson
- Austin Riley
- Mauricio Dubón
- Eli White
- Michael Harris II
- Jorge Mateo
LAA
- Zach Neto
- Mike Trout
- Nolan Schanuel
- Jorge Soler
- Yoán Moncada
- Jo Adell
- Josh Lowe
- Logan O'Hoppe
- Oswald Peraza
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.07
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
77°F
Wind: 8 mph in
Elo Ratings
ATL: 1552
LAA: 1474
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | ATL | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -130 | +110 |
| Bovada | -131 | +109 |
| BetMGM | -135 | +115 |
| DraftKings | -136 | +113 |
| Caesars | -135 | +115 |