BAL
55%
@
April 8, 2026
CWS
45%
Pitching Matchup
BAL
Kyle Bradish
vs
CWS
Sean Burke
Win Probability
| Source | BAL | CWS |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 55.2% | 44.8% |
| Simulation only | 49.9% | 50.1% |
| Elo ratings | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| Market (implied) | 58.9% | 41.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
BAL avg runs
4.6
CWS avg runs
4.1
Avg total
8.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = BAL wins, Positive = CWS wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 5.7% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 13.6% | 13.0% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.7% |
| CWS | 6.5% | 11.5% | 13.7% | 14.6% | 14.4% | 12.1% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% |
Lineups PROJECTED
BAL
- Taylor Ward
- Gunnar Henderson
- Pete Alonso
- Adley Rutschman
- Samuel Basallo
- Tyler O'Neill
- Colton Cowser
- Coby Mayo
- Jeremiah Jackson
CWS
- Chase Meidroth
- Munetaka Murakami
- Miguel Vargas
- Colson Montgomery
- Lenyn Sosa
- Andrew Benintendi
- Luisangel Acuña
- Reese McGuire
- Tristan Peters
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.96
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
64°F
Wind: 14 mph in
Elo Ratings
BAL: 1498
CWS: 1400
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | BAL | CWS |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -162 | +136 |
| Bovada | -155 | +130 |
| BetMGM | -160 | +135 |
| DraftKings | -163 | +135 |
| Caesars | -160 | +135 |