DET
47%
@
April 8, 2026
MIN
53%
ML
MIN ML (+135) — 53% win, +7.8% edge
Pitching Matchup
DET
Framber Valdez
vs
MIN
Bailey Ober
Win Probability
| Source | DET | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 46.9% | 53.1% |
| Simulation only | 45.4% | 54.6% |
| Elo ratings | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Market (implied) | 58.2% | 41.8% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
DET avg runs
4.7
MIN avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.3
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = DET wins, Positive = MIN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 5.3% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 13.1% | 13.0% | 12.2% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.9% |
| MIN | 4.9% | 8.7% | 12.2% | 13.4% | 13.9% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.8% |
Lineups PROJECTED
DET
- Colt Keith
- Kevin McGonigle
- Gleyber Torres
- Kerry Carpenter
- Riley Greene
- Dillon Dingler
- Spencer Torkelson
- Parker Meadows
- Javier Bรกez
MIN
- Byron Buxton
- Austin Martin
- Luke Keaschall
- Ryan Jeffers
- Victor Caratini
- Josh Bell
- Matt Wallner
- Royce Lewis
- Brooks Lee
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.07
HR: 0.96
BB: 1.06
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
52°F
Wind: 13 mph cross
Elo Ratings
DET: 1482
MIN: 1469
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | DET | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -154 | +130 |
| Bovada | -145 | +122 |
| BetMGM | -150 | +125 |
| DraftKings | -156 | +129 |
| Caesars | -160 | +135 |
Model Analysis
The market has MIN as a +135 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Bailey Ober keeps MIN competitive on the mound against Framber Valdez.