SDP
49%
@
April 8, 2026
PIT
51%
Pitching Matchup
SDP
Mike King
vs
PIT
Mitch Keller
Win Probability
| Source | SDP | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Simulation only | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| Elo ratings | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| Market (implied) | 49.9% | 50.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SDP avg runs
5.0
PIT avg runs
4.8
Avg total
9.8
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SDP wins, Positive = PIT wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDP | 4.8% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 12.9% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.4% |
| PIT | 5.2% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 13.7% | 13.0% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SDP
- Ramón Laureano
- Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Jackson Merrill
- Manny Machado
- Xander Bogaerts
- Gavin Sheets
- Nick Castellanos
- Jake Cronenworth
- Luis Campusano
PIT
- Oneil Cruz
- Brandon Lowe
- Bryan Reynolds
- Ryan O'Hearn
- Marcell Ozuna
- Nick Gonzales
- Spencer Horwitz
- Konnor Griffin
- Joey Bart
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.8
BB: 1.0
K: 0.92
Weather
Forecast
60°F
Wind: 8 mph cross
Elo Ratings
SDP: 1485
PIT: 1456
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SDP | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -110 | -106 |
| Bovada | -112 | -108 |
| BetMGM | -105 | -115 |
| DraftKings | -110 | -110 |
| Caesars | -110 | -110 |