ARI
48%
@
April 8, 2026
NYM
52%
Pitching Matchup
ARI
Ryne Nelson
vs
NYM
David Peterson
Win Probability
| Source | ARI | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| Simulation only | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| Elo ratings | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| Market (implied) | 44.0% | 56.0% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
ARI avg runs
4.6
NYM avg runs
4.3
Avg total
8.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = ARI wins, Positive = NYM wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 6.0% | 9.6% | 12.6% | 13.4% | 13.1% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.8% |
| NYM | 6.2% | 10.6% | 12.7% | 13.8% | 14.1% | 12.4% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
ARI
- Ketel Marte
- Corbin Carroll
- Geraldo Perdomo
- Gabriel Moreno
- Nolan Arenado
- Jose Fernandez
- Tim Tawa
- Luken Baker
- Jorge Barrosa
NYM
- Francisco Lindor
- Bo Bichette
- Jorge Polanco
- Luis Robert Jr.
- Brett Baty
- Mark Vientos
- Marcus Semien
- Carson Benge
- Luis Torrens
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.02
BB: 1.06
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
40°F
Wind: 10 mph in
Elo Ratings
ARI: 1504
NYM: 1488
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | ARI | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +120 | -142 |
| Bovada | +122 | -145 |
| BetMGM | +120 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +113 | -136 |
| Caesars | +115 | -135 |