Athletics
34%
@
April 8, 2026
NYY
66%
RL
Athletics +1.5 (-110) — 61% win, +8.8% edge
Pitching Matchup
Athletics
Luis Severino
vs
NYY
Will Warren
Win Probability
| Source | Athletics | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 33.7% | 66.3% |
| Simulation only | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| Elo ratings | 22.7% | 77.3% |
| Market (implied) | 35.7% | 64.3% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Athletics avg runs
5.1
NYY avg runs
5.3
Avg total
10.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = Athletics wins, Positive = NYY wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | 3.9% | 7.7% | 10.9% | 12.7% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.3% |
| NYY | 3.5% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.8% |
Lineups PROJECTED
Athletics
- Nick Kurtz
- Shea Langeliers
- Tyler Soderstrom
- Brent Rooker
- Jacob Wilson
- Lawrence Butler
- Max Muncy
- Jeff McNeil
- Denzel Clarke
NYY
- Trent Grisham
- Aaron Judge
- Cody Bellinger
- Ben Rice
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- Austin Wells
- José Caballero
- Ryan McMahon
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.1
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
41°F
Wind: 10 mph cross
Elo Ratings
Athletics: 1461
NYY: 1650
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | Athletics | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +168 | -200 |
| Bovada | +171 | -211 |
| BetMGM | +155 | -190 |
| DraftKings | +169 | -207 |
| Caesars | +175 | -210 |
Model Analysis
Athletics is getting +1.5 at -110. The sim gives them a 61% chance of covering — 8.8% edge. Run line bets are higher variance, but the model sees value here.