CHC
55%
@
April 8, 2026
TBR
45%
Pitching Matchup
CHC
Colin Rea
vs
TBR
Joe Boyle
Win Probability
| Source | CHC | TBR |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 55.1% | 44.9% |
| Simulation only | 50.6% | 49.5% |
| Elo ratings | 59.6% | 40.4% |
| Market (implied) | 49.6% | 50.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CHC avg runs
4.8
TBR avg runs
4.3
Avg total
9.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CHC wins, Positive = TBR wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 5.0% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 13.5% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
| TBR | 6.3% | 10.0% | 13.8% | 14.4% | 13.4% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CHC
- Michael Busch
- Alex Bregman
- Ian Happ
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Nico Hoerner
- Carson Kelly
- Moisés Ballesteros
- Dansby Swanson
- Michael Conforto
TBR
- Yandy Díaz
- Jonathan Aranda
- Jake Fraley
- Junior Caminero
- Chandler Simpson
- Ben Williamson
- Cedric Mullins
- Taylor Walls
- Hunter Feduccia
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.0
BB: 1.0
K: 1.08
Elo Ratings
CHC: 1525
TBR: 1433
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CHC | TBR |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -108 | -108 |
| Bovada | -102 | -118 |
| BetMGM | -115 | -105 |
| DraftKings | -108 | -112 |
| Caesars | -110 | -110 |