CIN
45%
@
April 8, 2026
MIA
55%
Pitching Matchup
CIN
Brady Singer
vs
MIA
Eury Perez
Win Probability
| Source | CIN | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 44.6% | 55.4% |
| Simulation only | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| Elo ratings | 43.1% | 56.9% |
| Market (implied) | 45.1% | 54.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CIN avg runs
4.6
MIA avg runs
4.6
Avg total
9.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CIN wins, Positive = MIA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 5.9% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 13.2% | 13.3% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.7% |
| MIA | 5.5% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 13.8% | 13.8% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CIN
- TJ Friedl
- Matt McLain
- Elly De La Cruz
- Sal Stewart
- Eugenio Suárez
- Spencer Steer
- Will Benson
- Tyler Stephenson
- Ke'Bryan Hayes
MIA
- Jakob Marsee
- Xavier Edwards
- Agustín Ramírez
- Liam Hicks
- Otto Lopez
- Owen Caissie
- Connor Norby
- Griffin Conine
- Graham Pauley
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 0.92
BB: 1.06
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
CIN: 1516
MIA: 1540
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CIN | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +110 | -130 |
| Bovada | +111 | -133 |
| BetMGM | +110 | -130 |
| DraftKings | +113 | -136 |
| Caesars | +115 | -135 |