KCR
42%
@
April 8, 2026
CLE
58%
ML
CLE ML (+110) — 58% win, +8.1% edge
Pitching Matchup
KCR
Cole Ragans
vs
CLE
Joseph Cantillo
Win Probability
| Source | KCR | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 42.2% | 57.8% |
| Simulation only | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| Elo ratings | 32.4% | 67.6% |
| Market (implied) | 53.8% | 46.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
KCR avg runs
4.4
CLE avg runs
3.8
Avg total
8.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = KCR wins, Positive = CLE wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KCR | 5.9% | 10.3% | 13.6% | 13.7% | 13.6% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.3% |
| CLE | 8.5% | 12.8% | 14.5% | 15.4% | 13.8% | 11.6% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
Lineups PROJECTED
KCR
- Maikel Garcia
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Vinnie Pasquantino
- Salvador Perez
- Lane Thomas
- Jac Caglianone
- Starling Marte
- Jonathan India
- Isaac Collins
CLE
- Steven Kwan
- Angel Martínez
- José Ramírez
- David Fry
- Chase DeLauter
- Rhys Hoskins
- Juan Brito
- Austin Hedges
- Brayan Rocchio
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.9
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
58°F
Wind: 10 mph in
Elo Ratings
KCR: 1467
CLE: 1571
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | KCR | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -130 | +110 |
| Bovada | -128 | +107 |
| BetMGM | -125 | +105 |
| DraftKings | -131 | +109 |
| Caesars | -125 | +105 |
Model Analysis
CLE is getting plus-money at +110 and the model thinks that's too cheap. Joseph Cantillo keeps CLE competitive on the mound against Cole Ragans. CLE holds a commanding 104-point Elo edge.