LAD
60%
@
April 8, 2026
TOR
40%
Pitching Matchup
LAD
Shohei Ohtani
vs
TOR
Dylan Cease
Win Probability
| Source | LAD | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 59.5% | 40.5% |
| Simulation only | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| Elo ratings | 65.2% | 34.8% |
| Market (implied) | 60.4% | 39.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
LAD avg runs
5.8
TOR avg runs
4.8
Avg total
10.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = LAD wins, Positive = TOR wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 3.1% | 5.8% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.3% |
| TOR | 4.7% | 8.2% | 11.6% | 13.2% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.1% |
Lineups PROJECTED
LAD
- Shohei Ohtani
- Kyle Tucker
- Will Smith
- Freddie Freeman
- Teoscar Hernández
- Max Muncy
- Andy Pages
- Alex Freeland
- Hyeseong Kim
TOR
- George Springer
- Daulton Varsho
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Jesús Sánchez
- Kazuma Okamoto
- Ernie Clement
- Nathan Lukes
- Andrés Giménez
- Tyler Heineman
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.04
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
LAD: 1647
TOR: 1514
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | LAD | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -164 | +138 |
| Bovada | -180 | +148 |
| BetMGM | -160 | +135 |
| DraftKings | -171 | +141 |
| Caesars | -170 | +143 |