PHI
52%
@
April 8, 2026
SFG
48%
Pitching Matchup
PHI
Aaron Nola
vs
SFG
Tyler Mahle
Win Probability
| Source | PHI | SFG |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| Simulation only | 46.9% | 53.1% |
| Elo ratings | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| Market (implied) | 55.1% | 44.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
PHI avg runs
4.7
SFG avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = PHI wins, Positive = SFG wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 5.7% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 13.0% | 13.1% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.7% |
| SFG | 5.8% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 14.0% | 13.0% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
PHI
- Trea Turner
- Kyle Schwarber
- Bryce Harper
- Adolis García
- Bryson Stott
- Brandon Marsh
- Edmundo Sosa
- Rafael Marchán
- Justin Crawford
SFG
- Willy Adames
- Luis Arraez
- Matt Chapman
- Rafael Devers
- Heliot Ramos
- Jung Hoo Lee
- Harrison Bader
- Patrick Bailey
- Casey Schmitt
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.91
HR: 0.82
BB: 0.86
K: 0.9
Elo Ratings
PHI: 1505
SFG: 1436
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | PHI | SFG |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -134 | +114 |
| Bovada | -133 | +111 |
| BetMGM | -135 | +115 |
| DraftKings | -136 | +113 |
| Caesars | -135 | +115 |