SEA
45%
@
April 8, 2026
TEX
55%
ML
TEX ML (+114) — 55% win, +6.7% edge
Pitching Matchup
SEA
Bryan Woo
vs
TEX
MacKenzie Gore
Win Probability
| Source | SEA | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 45.1% | 54.9% |
| Simulation only | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| Elo ratings | 42.0% | 58.0% |
| Market (implied) | 54.2% | 45.8% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SEA avg runs
5.0
TEX avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SEA wins, Positive = TEX wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 4.7% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.5% |
| TEX | 4.6% | 8.9% | 12.6% | 13.2% | 13.3% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.9% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SEA
- Rob Refsnyder
- Cal Raleigh
- Julio Rodríguez
- Josh Naylor
- Randy Arozarena
- Brendan Donovan
- J.P. Crawford
- Victor Robles
- Cole Young
TEX
- Brandon Nimmo
- Wyatt Langford
- Corey Seager
- Jake Burger
- Joc Pederson
- Evan Carter
- Danny Jansen
- Josh Smith
- Josh Jung
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.95
HR: 1.07
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
SEA: 1492
TEX: 1524
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SEA | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -124 | +106 |
| Bovada | -136 | +114 |
| BetMGM | -125 | +105 |
| DraftKings | -131 | +109 |
| Caesars | -130 | +110 |
Model Analysis
TEX is getting plus-money at +114 and the model thinks that's too cheap. MacKenzie Gore keeps TEX competitive on the mound against Bryan Woo.