STL
49%
@
April 8, 2026
WSN
51%
Pitching Matchup
STL
Michael McGreevy
vs
WSN
Miles Mikolas
Win Probability
| Source | STL | WSN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| Simulation only | 44.1% | 55.9% |
| Elo ratings | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| Market (implied) | 53.4% | 46.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
STL avg runs
4.4
WSN avg runs
4.5
Avg total
8.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = STL wins, Positive = WSN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 6.7% | 11.0% | 13.1% | 13.2% | 12.6% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.6% |
| WSN | 5.3% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 14.1% | 13.9% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
STL
- JJ Wetherholt
- Iván Herrera
- Alec Burleson
- Jordan Walker
- Nolan Gorman
- Masyn Winn
- Nathan Church
- Pedro Pagés
- Victor Scott II
WSN
- James Wood
- Luis García Jr.
- Brady House
- Daylen Lile
- CJ Abrams
- Nasim Nuñez
- Jorbit Vivas
- Drew Millas
- Jacob Young
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.98
BB: 0.95
K: 0.95
Elo Ratings
STL: 1545
WSN: 1490
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | STL | WSN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -130 | +110 |
| Bovada | -126 | +106 |
| BetMGM | -120 | +100 |
| DraftKings | -122 | +102 |
| Caesars | -120 | +100 |