Athletics
35%
@
April 9, 2026
NYY
65%
RL
Athletics +1.5 (-115) — 61% win, +7.8% edge
Pitching Matchup
Athletics
Jeffrey Springs
vs
NYY
Ryan Weathers
Win Probability
| Source | Athletics | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 34.7% | 65.3% |
| Simulation only | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| Elo ratings | 25.9% | 74.1% |
| Market (implied) | 33.9% | 66.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Athletics avg runs
4.5
NYY avg runs
4.9
Avg total
9.5
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = Athletics wins, Positive = NYY wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | 5.7% | 10.1% | 12.6% | 13.9% | 13.0% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.6% |
| NYY | 4.0% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 13.3% | 14.1% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
Athletics
- Jacob Wilson
- Andy Ibáñez
- Shea Langeliers
- Brent Rooker
- Max Muncy
- Tyler Soderstrom
- Austin Wynns
- Darell Hernaiz
- Denzel Clarke
NYY
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Aaron Judge
- Cody Bellinger
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Amed Rosario
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- José Caballero
- Randal Grichuk
- Austin Wells
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.1
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
42°F
Wind: 11 mph cross
Elo Ratings
Athletics: 1476
NYY: 1635
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | Athletics | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +180 | -215 |
| Bovada | +185 | -225 |
| BetMGM | +165 | -200 |
| DraftKings | +189 | -232 |
| Caesars | +192 | -235 |
Model Analysis
Athletics is getting +1.5 at -115. The sim gives them a 61% chance of covering — 7.8% edge. Run line bets are higher variance, but the model sees value here.