ARI
50%
@
April 9, 2026
NYM
50%
ML
ARI ML (+140) — 50% win, +8.4% edge
Pitching Matchup
ARI
Eduardo Rodriguez
vs
NYM
Nolan McLean
Win Probability
| Source | ARI | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 49.7% | 50.3% |
| Simulation only | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Elo ratings | 51.8% | 48.2% |
| Market (implied) | 40.4% | 59.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
ARI avg runs
4.5
NYM avg runs
4.3
Avg total
8.8
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = ARI wins, Positive = NYM wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 6.3% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 13.5% | 13.0% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.5% |
| NYM | 6.0% | 11.0% | 13.2% | 14.2% | 13.8% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.3% |
Lineups PROJECTED
ARI
- Ketel Marte
- Corbin Carroll
- Geraldo Perdomo
- Gabriel Moreno
- Adrian Del Castillo
- Nolan Arenado
- Ildemaro Vargas
- Alek Thomas
- Jorge Barrosa
NYM
- Francisco Lindor
- Bo Bichette
- Jorge Polanco
- Luis Robert Jr.
- Mark Vientos
- Marcus Semien
- Francisco Alvarez
- Carson Benge
- Tyrone Taylor
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.02
BB: 1.06
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
42°F
Wind: 10 mph in
Elo Ratings
ARI: 1515
NYM: 1478
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | ARI | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +136 | -162 |
| Bovada | +139 | -165 |
| BetMGM | +135 | -160 |
| DraftKings | +139 | -168 |
| Caesars | +140 | -165 |
Model Analysis
The market has ARI as a +140 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Eduardo Rodriguez keeps ARI competitive on the mound against Nolan McLean. Cold temps suppress the bats.