CIN
43%
@
April 9, 2026
MIA
57%
Pitching Matchup
CIN
Rhett Lowder
vs
MIA
Max Meyer
Win Probability
| Source | CIN | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 42.7% | 57.3% |
| Simulation only | 44.7% | 55.3% |
| Elo ratings | 40.7% | 59.3% |
| Market (implied) | 47.8% | 52.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CIN avg runs
4.5
MIA avg runs
4.6
Avg total
9.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CIN wins, Positive = MIA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 6.3% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 13.5% | 13.2% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.0% |
| MIA | 5.5% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 13.9% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CIN
- TJ Friedl
- Matt McLain
- Elly De La Cruz
- Sal Stewart
- Eugenio Suárez
- Spencer Steer
- Will Benson
- Ke'Bryan Hayes
- P.J. Higgins
MIA
- Jakob Marsee
- Xavier Edwards
- Agustín Ramírez
- Liam Hicks
- Otto Lopez
- Owen Caissie
- Connor Norby
- Griffin Conine
- Graham Pauley
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 0.92
BB: 1.06
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
CIN: 1507
MIA: 1549
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CIN | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +102 | -120 |
| Bovada | -102 | -118 |
| BetMGM | -102 | -118 |
| DraftKings | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | +100 | -120 |