CWS
42%
@
April 9, 2026
KCR
58%
RL
CWS +1.5 (-130) — 63% win, +7.2% edge
Pitching Matchup
CWS
Anthony Kay
vs
KCR
Seth Lugo
Win Probability
| Source | CWS | KCR |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 41.6% | 58.4% |
| Simulation only | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| Elo ratings | 37.0% | 63.0% |
| Market (implied) | 37.6% | 62.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CWS avg runs
4.7
KCR avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CWS wins, Positive = KCR wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS | 5.7% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.8% |
| KCR | 5.3% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 14.1% | 13.3% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.8% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CWS
- Chase Meidroth
- Munetaka Murakami
- Miguel Vargas
- Colson Montgomery
- Lenyn Sosa
- Andrew Benintendi
- Edgar Quero
- Tristan Peters
- Luisangel Acuña
KCR
- Maikel Garcia
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Vinnie Pasquantino
- Salvador Perez
- Lane Thomas
- Jac Caglianone
- Jonathan India
- Starling Marte
- Isaac Collins
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.0
BB: 1.1
K: 0.93
Elo Ratings
CWS: 1392
KCR: 1461
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CWS | KCR |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +150 | -178 |
| Bovada | +150 | -182 |
| BetMGM | +155 | -190 |
| DraftKings | +159 | -194 |
| Caesars | +158 | -190 |
Model Analysis
CWS is getting +1.5 at -130. The sim gives them a 63% chance of covering — 7.2% edge. Run line bets are higher variance, but the model sees value here.